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Agnieszka Holland: «For us, Polish people, Ukraine is a guardian of our independence. Ukraine cannot join the EU without Polish help»

«You, Ukrainian women, have every right to fight for your life, your dignity, your children and your future. Do not let yourselves be oppressed and don’t think that you are not entitled to anything», - says the distinguished Polish movie director.

Mariia Gorska

Agnieszka Holland. Photo: Wojciech Olszanka/East News

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The «Green Border» by Polish director Agnieszka Holland was released in Ukrainian cinemas. It premiered last year at the 80th Venice International Film Festival. The «Green Border» film received a special award from the jury. It was also given the title of the best Polish movie of the year. Mariia Gorska, the chief editor of the Sestry.eu portal, met with Agnieszka Holland on the eve of the movie’s premiere at the Venice festival. To your attention - an interview with the outstanding Polish film director, that was first published on the portal on September 22 2023.

We’re meeting in Lady Agnieska’s old apartment in Warsaw. A live legend opens the doors for me. I brought white lilies to thank her for the movie about Holodomor [«The Price of Truth» premiered in February 2019 at the Berlin International Film Festival. - Edit]. We sat at a table underneath the painting «Saturn Devouring His Son» by Francisco Goya. I show Lady Holland the movie trailer that I brought on a flash drive from Ukraine. This is a part of the working material for the film saga about the writer Stanisław Vincenz - Homer of the Hutsuls. We were filming this movie in the Carpathians with a Polish-Ukrainian team before the war. 

From the Polish side, Lady Holland’s friends were working on the movie about the author of the Hutsul epic «On the High Uplands» - among them were film director Jan Kidawa-Błoński, camera operator Łukasz Hutt and other artists. I often see their group photos from protests for democracy in Warsaw on Facebook. Oleg Drach was supposed to play Vincenz in our movie. He also appears in Holland’s latest movie «Green Border». We watch the trailer for the movie about Vincenz where I’m playing as his wife. In the finale, we are fleeing by foot through the snowy Carpathian mountains from the Soviet occupation with our children and a suitcase. I’m thinking about the plans impeded by the war and all the displaced people like me.

Mariia Gorska and Agnieszka Holland

We’re drinking strong black coffee, eating chocolate and talking. About tyrants and the nature of evil, about Ukrainian cinematography and helping the people on the frontlines. And also about the movie by the prominent director, «Green Border» which tells the story of how Putin and Lukashenko used migrants as weapons.

Mariia Gorska: Your previous film - «The Price of Truth» - is about a journalist who wanted to tell the world the truth about Holodomor in Ukraine  more than anything. During the filming of «Green Border» you’ve worked as a journalist yourself. In preparation for the film, your team conducted hundreds of interviews with activists, border security, doctors, policemen and refugees. What’s it like to work on a problem that we’re still seeing on news reports on our TV screens?

Agnieszka Holland: From this point of view, this is a unique movie. Usually, artistic films tell stories about things that have already happened, that have been «frozen in amber», so to speak. Obviously, the situation is different in the case of the full-scale invasion - both today and back when the war started in Donbas after the annexation of Crimea. Ukrainian filmmakers were quick to react to that. I have had the impression that the world is standing on the edge of an abyss for a long time now. And if we don’t build a bridge over this void we will fall into it.

I’m just doing what I do best - movies that display danger, are shocking and impressive, movies that enable the viewer to understand and experience something on a deeper level

What issues, important for the viewer and for you as an artist, are raised in «Green Border»?

It is taboo to talk about what’s happening on the border between Poland and Belarus. Terrible things are happening there that cast Polish official services in a less than favorable light. We on the other hand talk about it aloud. It is about the fear of the «Other», who will suddenly come and disrupt our comfort zone. We fear such people, we fear the unfamiliar, we fear poverty, we fear otherness - different skin colour, different religion, different smells. We fear that they (refugees) will come and take away our comfort, our habits, our culture.

This fear is so potent that populist politicians, who are oftentimes autocratic and even totalitarian like Putin, exploit it.  He sensed that the European Union is wealthy, rich and somewhat lazy - and it's very easy to destabilise it with this refugee threat. Populist politicians say: «We will stop them! But others (the opposition) will let them in and then this horde will overwhelm you! And these are terrible people - they spread germs and parasites, they hate women, they rape, they are pedophiles, zoophiles, terrorists.»

These migrants are so dehumanised that they cease to be seen as human beings in the eyes of many nations. And in such a situation, anything can be done to them, isn’t that so? We have already gone through this in the past and the recent history. When someone is not seen as human to us, but just as a cockroach, it becomes no problem to destroy them. This is what I’m afraid of.

I'm afraid that if we don't stop now, we'll be moving towards acceptance of extinction. That's what my movie is about

This movie caused an outrage in Polish mass media…

During the time of PiS (Law and Justice) government, state media didn't like me. They said, "The script was written by Putin and directed by Lukashenko," suggesting that I serve Putin and Lukashenko. To some extent, it's true because the script for this story was indeed written by Putin and Lukashenko directed it. Representatives of the free world in the European Union, like us, are assigned certain roles – just like refugees. However, the question remains open: which roles will we choose and whom will we play in this terrible mystery?

150 million people are fleeing from war, climate change and starvation - they are knocking on Europe’s door. What could be done to resolve this situation?

There are two options: either we become mass murderers, start bombing the boats in the Mediterranean Sea, install machine guns at the Belarussian border and start shooting, or we come up with something that will enable us to coexist and help each other.

A frame from «Green Border» by Holland. Photo: Agata Kubis / Kino Świat

The Poles have opened their homes and their hearts to Ukrainians who were fleeing the Russian war. What is your view on this?

The Poles were profoundly emotional when the full-scale invasion began.

People weren’t helping just to post photos on Instagram; they genuinely invested their time and money and sometimes even took risks by travelling deep into Ukraine. Many of my friends went there

They transported refugees, body armor for soldiers, medicine and animals. This was sincere and profound assistance that remains an important memory.

And when some PiS politician comes later and says that Ukrainians are ungrateful, I want to slap him in the face. Helping someone and demanding gratitude is a complete lack of class.

Ukraine is grateful to you! I would also like to thank you, Lady Holland, and Poland for your support. Has there been any story that has touched you personally?

We became good friends with Sasha Kostina’s family, the producer of «Pamfir» [a 2022 Ukrainian movie about a man’s return to his home village where he is forced to encounter the smuggling business that he tried to escape from for many years once again. - Edit.]. They’ve lived at our home in Brittany for a couple of months. It was a difficult time; everyone was in shock and had psychological trauma. They adopted a tiny baby from a hospital for premature babies. We were all with that little girl and a very kind and good boy, Timur, who was also born prematurely. I saw their suffering.

I used to be an emigrant myself, in Paris, many years ago. During martial law, I was abroad and suddenly found myself cut off from my family, with nothing but a suitcase. Since I had given several interviews against the regime, I couldn't return. That first year was very difficult until I managed to bring my daughter home. Therefore, I fully understand what such people feel. Those who fled from the occupied territories and have nowhere to return to, and those from Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Odesa, who live in constant stress.

Have you seen «Pamfir»?

Yes, I have. I saw this motion picture in 2022 in Cannes. Very powerful. I have also watched some other very good new Ukrainian movies, such as «Klondike» and «Butterfly Vision».

As an expert at the Ukrainian State Film Agency, I read the script for «Butterfly Vision». Maksym Nakonechnyi is a very talented young director, and Iryna Tsilyk wrote a powerful script. By the way, she is one of the authors of our online magazine «Sisters».

Me and Iryna are good friends. In 2022, we were on the documentary film jury at Cannes.

A frame from a teaser of the movie about Stanisław Vincenz

She probably told you about life in wartime Kyiv, which somewhat resembles Warsaw during the Warsaw Uprising [Agnieszka Holland’s mother, journalist Irena Rybczyńska-Holland, participated in the Warsaw Uprising. - Edit.]. Why does history repeat itself?

It’s because we haven’t learned anything. When I was filming movies about World War II (three of which are about the Holocaust), people asked me: «Why are you making movies on this subject? It’s nothing but history». And I would reply that I make them because I have the impression that this is not just history, that this threat can awaken at any time, and that the Holocaust was a kind of a vaccine for Europe and the world, but this vaccine has stopped working. It has passed, and we as humanity are once again ready for any crimes, horrors and tortures of apocalyptic scale.

Massive casualties, weaponised sexual violence, tortures and murders of thousands of city and village residents - today we’re observing the same things once again: in Izium, Kharkiv, Kherson and towns on the outskirts of Kyiv. What is this phenomenon of Putin and modern Russia, in your opinion? How could such cruelty and savagery be explained in this day and age?

This can only be explained by the nature of evil.

Humanity is inclined toward the evil. Nothing can hold back the evil’s potential if the mechanism is set running even by a single human being

It seemed as though there would no longer be any wars like the First or Second World Wars after the invention of the atomic bomb and other methods of remote warfare. But what is happening in Ukraine right now, what this frontline looks like, reminds me of the First World War. They sit in trenches on one side, they sit in trenches on the other side, advance by a kilometre, mine the area. It feels as though it’s not happening right now, as if it’s not real and as if it’s some kind of a historical reconstruction. 

I have the same impression. The distance in time between today and World War II seems to have shortened with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. I am currently reading Remarque. And when I scroll through my social media, seeing photos from the frontline, from the trenches, it feels as if the book is coming to life - pure horror.

And at the same time, life goes on as usual just 500km away. And after the initial strong emotions passed, no one even turns on the TV when the news about the war is on.

What are your thoughts on Putin? If you had to make a movie about him, what would be in it? What makes 120 million Russians obey him?

I think it is due to his confidence and voluntarism. Most of the 20th century’s tyrants weren’t great people. Hitler was a pathetic little manchild, Stalin was some kind of a tiny «beak-nosed» Georgian. I'm not just talking about physical traits, but also about the fact that they didn't have any unusual intellectual qualities. They all had some kind of psychopathy.

I believe Putin could also be labelled as a psychopath, a clinical narcissist. Such people become truly dangerous when they push the button that forces everyone to follow them. Just like the Pied Piper, right?

The Pied Piper plays the flute, and people, as if enchanted, follow him, believing that he will lead them to a place where they will be happy. In a sense, Putin is a copy of Stalin, but he is less interesting than the original. He is a disgusting person who does a lot of evil. The world would be a better place if he were to disappear from it.

There are still leaders in Europe who seek agreements with Russia. Pope Francis addresses Russian Catholic youth as the heirs of a great Russia, a country of outstanding culture and humanity. However, Russian culture is an imperial culture, and the history of this country is soaked in blood. Why are some Europeans still oblivious to this fact? And what will become of Russia in the future?

It’s common among world leaders to think that Russia is too big to leave behind. It’s not going anywhere so they believe they need to find ways to live with it and build relationships in such a manner that it becomes more beneficial for Russia to be peaceful. This was the plan, wasn’t it? Only later did it become clear that they were acting irrationally. All authoritarian regimes, especially those led by one person with a personality cult, do not act rationally. For them maintaining power is more important than the economic situation, the welfare, or the happiness of their citizens. These things are secondary. The citizens of an authoritarian country do not need wealth and happiness. They need to be forced into believing that only this particular leader, only this dictator, will save them and lead them to a better world.

Russia is a terrible country. And it is terribly unhappy. After all, the victims of all these Russian tyrants are the Russians themselves.

Mariia Gorska as Irene Vincenz

What else can we do to make Putin lose in Ukraine? Russia's mobilisation potential is enormous. They are prepared for a prolonged war and to inundate the entire world with the bodies of their soldiers.

A nuclear button can only be neutralised by another nuclear button. The crisis of Western democracy lies in the politicians’ lack of long-term perspective. Not so long ago, it was said that they act from election to election. Now, I believe, they’re just acting from poll to poll. And Putin is counting on this.

The danger is that this could stabilise and become trivialised as a conflict that simultaneously seems active and suppressed. This could drag on for years. But then the question arises: what country could endure this - and how would people withstand it?

This war must end! Not smolder - so that people don’t have to live as if they are on a volcano that’s about to explode

Ukraine needs larger amounts of money and high-end weaponry.  And Western politicians must close their eyes to the fact that these weapons will be used beyond Ukrainian territory.

We’ve received major military support thanks to our friends like the Poles.

It is a «win-win» situation that benefits all of us - both Ukrainians and Poles. And when two sovereign nations work together, building trust and cooperation, the whole humanity benefits from it. This is especially important in the case of Poland and Ukraine due to our geopolitical situation. We share a common enemy and a common threat - Russia. Even if Putin disappears tomorrow, there is no guarantee that another head of the hydra won't emerge, is there? And there are no guarantees that the Russian people will be able to organise themselves in a democratic, non-imperial way. Therefore, we are compelled to cooperate. For us Poles, Ukraine is a guardian of our independence. On the other hand, without Poland, Ukraine will not enter Europe. We are Ukraine’s neighbours and one of its closest allies.

Many Ukrainian women, scattered around the world because of the war, read our magazine. What do you think of these women? What would you like to tell them?

You, Ukrainian women, have every right to fight for your life, your dignity, your children and your future. Do not let yourselves be oppressed and don’t think that you are not entitled to anything. Your compatriots, on the other hand, should understand that in the countries where they find themselves, people live differently. Therefore, Ukrainian women should also open their hearts and be sensitive to the identity, needs and traditions of those welcoming them.

What would you say to the residents of countries accepting Ukrainian refugees?

I would say that you should just help the people in need coming your way.

This dimension of help - human, personal, the most intimate - is the most important, for it builds the strongest bonds

On its course into the EU, Ukraine is forced to develop democracy amidst war. Poland travelled this path a long time ago - «Solidarity’s» victory inspired people on the Maidan. But your democracy is also threatened. Together, what can we do to protect our values?

We should keep an eye the hands of the politicians. We cannot let ourselves be fooled by fairytales, both in Ukraine and Poland. It is difficult because it is much easier to lie, manipulate and spread propaganda.

Politicians are not ashamed to use new technologies and let the genie out of the bottle by doing so. Soon, an ordinary human will not be able to distinguish the truth from lies

Social, not political institutions for truth research that will equip people with tools to distinguish truth from fake news should be created. And people should start doing it while they are still in school.

This sounds like a task for people like Gareth Jones, but is there anyone like that in the modern world?

Of course.

What world are we going to live in after the war?

We are going to heal our wounds and rebuild ourselves. There will be positive reconstruction energy, though there will also be much trauma, suffering and mourning. Europe and Ukrainians in particular will need a lot of optimistic enthusiasm.

It is important that this does not turn into a sense of inevitability described by Timothy Snyder. After the Second World War, it seemed as though the greatest trials were already behind us, but it turned out that evil still lurks among us and tends to its wounds.

It’s true.

Snyder also wrote about twenty lessons from the 20th century on tyranny. Which lesson is the most important to you?

The fact that there is no vaccine for tyranny. The worst-case scenarios will inevitably reoccur.

But you are an optimist! During the last hundred years, humanity, civilisation and human rights have evolved tremendously!

Yes, human rights have expanded. Social groups deprived of all rights have gradually gained them, and now humanity has become more inclusive. It even includes the welfare and rights of animals and plants.

So then, perhaps, we do have the chance to build a safer world?

This is a utopia. We are moving forward in small steps, but it's not a steady march. It's paroxysms: two steps forward, three steps back. Along this path, terrible events take place, suffering, torture and crimes occur. And then we move a little further again. This is not an optimistic path to a bright future; it's suffering and a struggle for every bit of freedom.

All of your movies are about moving beyond boundaries. What boundaries would you never cross?

The boundaries of humanity. We must always see a neighbour in another person. Of course, there are wars, when, for example, there's a Russian in front of us, and a soldier must shoot. But in all other situations, we cannot allow other people to become objects of hatred.

Thank you for this interview and for supporting Ukraine!

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Chief Editor of the online magazine Sestry. Media expert, TV host, cultural manager. Ukrainian journalist, program director of the TV channel Espresso, organiser of international cultural events significant for Polish-Ukrainian dialogue, including the Vincenz projects in Ukraine. She was the chief editor of prime-time celebrity lifestyle shows aired on STB, 1+1, TET, and Novyi Kanal TV channels. Since 2013, she has been a journalist at the Espresso TV channel, hosting the programs «Week with Maria Gurska» and «Saturday Political Club» with Vitaliy Portnikov. Since February 24, 2022, she has been a host of the wartime TV marathon on Espresso. She is temporarily residing in Warsaw, where she has actively joined initiatives to support Ukrainian temporary migrants in the EU - launching the publication Sestry with a team of Polish and Ukrainian journalists.

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The West had all the tools to foresee Russia's war against Ukraine - and chose to ignore them. Even before 2014, analysis reached NATO's highest offices: the annexation of Crimea, the threat to Mariupol, the Russian Federation's dominance in the Black Sea. The forecasts were accurate, but most member states opted for the illusion of partnership with the Kremlin.

Are changes still possible? What is required to achieve them? And can NATO remain an effective security alliance in a new era of threats? These and other questions were addressed in an interview with Sestry by Dr Stefanie Babst - one of the most influential security strategists in Europe, who worked at NATO for over 20 years, including as Head of the Strategic Foresight Team. Today, she is an independent analyst, the author of a book on the West's «blind spots» in its strategy toward Russia, and an active participant in international discussions on war, peace and security.

Ukraine, Russia and the strategic miscalculations of the West

Maryna Stepanenko: You led NATO's Strategic Foresight Team. How do you assess the West's ability to foresee Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine? Were there signals that were simply not heard, or perhaps deliberately ignored?

Stefanie Babst: There were many warnings that went unheeded. Allow me to explain. In international relations, it is crucial to accurately assess the mindset, capabilities and intentions of another actor. NATO failed to do this with Russia. As the Head of Strategic Foresight at the Alliance, I issued the first serious warning in 2013 - a few months before the annexation of Crimea. I presented an analysis outlining Russia's malicious intentions and its military preparations against Ukraine.

It was reviewed by the Secretary General and discussed with member states, but no action was taken

Some countries - the Baltic States and Poland - took the analysis seriously. Others - notably Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom - preferred to maintain the NATO-Russia partnership. From 2014 onwards, we intensified our analysis, forecasting actions such as the seizure of Mariupol, dominance in the Black Sea and the use of Donbas as a staging ground. These forecasts were presented at the highest levels, including the NATO Council, but were ultimately dismissed.

In 2015 and 2016, we broadened our focus to include China and its ties with Russia, offering future scenarios and forecasting so-called «black swans» - high-impact events that are hard to predict, seem unlikely but could have serious consequences if they occur. Again, many perceived this only as «intellectual exercises». Thus, NATO possessed the tools of foresight - and chose to ignore them. And that comes at a very high cost.

In your work, you call for a review of the West's strategy toward Russia. In your view, what «blind spots» remain in Western approaches - particularly regarding support for Ukraine?

Three years ago, I called for a powerful, multifaceted deterrence strategy to help Ukraine not just freeze the war but win it. I invoked George Kennan's Cold War approach, urging the use of all available instruments - economic, diplomatic and military - to push Russia out of Ukraine. But apart from some Baltic and Northern European countries, no one took this seriously.

NATO and the EU still lack a defined end goal. If Ukraine's victory were the objective, a corresponding strategy would have been developed

Instead, Western leaders underestimated Ukraine's resilience and failed to act decisively even after Russia crossed countless red lines. President Biden, despite his commitment to Ukraine, framed his approach around what the United States would not do: we will not provoke Russia, we will not give Ukrainians long-range weapons, we will not do this or that. This is not a strategy. Now, with Trump’s return, many European governments are passively hoping for a US-Russian agreement that merely freezes the war - something I believe is dangerous both for Ukraine and Europe.

My main criticism is the lack of political will in the West. Too many still see this as Russia's war against Ukrainians. But it is our war too

Stefanie, why do you think Europe failed to prepare effectively for Trump’s presidency?

Planning within NATO and European governments is often difficult, as politicians typically focus on short-term goals, usually only a month ahead. In times of emergency, particularly due to Washington's unpredictability, Europe must abandon crisis management mode and stop reacting to every event, such as a new tweet.

Europe must be firm with the United States, clearly communicating that their actions - including threats to countries like Canada and Denmark, withholding intelligence from Ukraine and halting cyber operations against Russia - are unacceptable. These decisions had deadly consequences, and member states should not be afraid to hold the United States accountable for violating the fundamental principles of the Washington Treaty.

Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General, recently visited Florida to meet President Trump, hoping to impress him with defence spending figures. He praised Trump’s leadership and even claimed that Trump had «broken the deadlock» in relations with Russia. However, this is detached from the reality of ongoing Russian attacks.

If the NATO Secretary General lacks a clear message, the best approach is silence, focusing on supporting member states and protecting them from any threat. We do not have time for empty words and political games.

Europeans must remain immune to American political theatre, focusing on strengthening defence capability and supporting Ukraine’s defence industry so it can resist Russian aggression
Rutte: NATO wants to make Ukraine a strong state. Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine

Migration and war

Germany is no longer the EU leader in asylum requests from South American and Middle Eastern refugees. At the same time, in the first quarter of 2025, applications from Ukrainians rose by 84 per cent. What does this indicate?

It is entirely understandable that many Ukrainians have chosen to leave their country for personal and professional reasons - this is natural, and no one should be blamed for it. But this migration has political consequences in Germany, particularly when far-right parties exploit it by portraying Ukrainian refugees as a burden on the social system, regardless of their skills or motivation. These sentiments are especially strong in eastern Germany, where parties like AfD and certain left-wing populist movements have gained support.

What concerns me is the lack of strong counteraction from the federal government in Berlin - clearer messaging and political leadership are needed

If more Ukrainians arrive, I hope the next government will take a positive stance, recognising that many of them can significantly contribute to the German workforce. This would mean reducing bureaucracy, accelerating integration and facilitating their employment. Whether this happens remains to be seen.

Continuing on this topic, in recent weeks, some districts in Germany have publicly declared that they can no longer accommodate Ukrainian refugees due to overburdened social systems. How do you assess these sentiments?

It is true that local communities across Germany still face difficulties in accommodating refugees - an issue that arose after Chancellor Merkel’s decision to open the borders, leading to a large influx of refugees from Syria, Afghanistan and other countries. Many municipalities remain overwhelmed by demands for housing, language training and integration support. However, Ukrainian refugees do not pose the same challenges.

Ukrainians generally integrate well, bring strong skills and education and do not contribute to social tensions

In contrast, some refugees from the Middle East struggle to adapt to liberal democratic norms, which fuels far-right narratives, particularly in eastern Germany. Parties like AfD and figures such as Sahra Wagenknecht exploit this, promoting anti-Ukrainian, pro-concession rhetoric that ignores the reality of Russian occupation.

Unfortunately, mainstream democratic parties are not doing enough to push them back. With growing support from American right-wing populists, such as those connected to Trump or Musk, this polarisation may deepen further, posing a serious threat to democratic cohesion in Europe.

Europe on the brink of war

Amid full-scale war in Ukraine, initiatives have emerged in Poland and Germany to prepare schoolchildren for emergencies. Does this indicate a deeper shift in Europe's security culture, where defence is no longer solely the army's responsibility, but that of the entire society?

Although some defence-related courses have begun in Germany, they remain insufficient, and the wider public remains largely unprepared - both mentally and physically - to play a defensive role.

Serious debates are now underway about reinstating military conscription, but surveys show that two-thirds of people aged 20 to 30 would refuse to serve, with many saying they would rather emigrate than defend the country.

This reflects a deeper issue: decades of political messaging have conditioned Germans to believe they live in peace, surrounded by allies, and need not prepare for conflict

As a result, Germany also lacks bunkers for emergencies, civil defence training and basic resilience measures for the population. Changing this mindset will require strong political leadership. Without it, the Bundeswehr will remain under-equipped and unable to contribute significantly to efforts such as a potential coalition in Ukraine.

We see civil defence becoming part of public policy, from educating children to testing alarm systems. Is Europe beginning to think seriously about its own resilience in the face of potential escalation beyond Ukraine?

Undoubtedly. Some countries, such as Finland, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic States, have prioritised both military capability and societal resilience in recent years. In cities such as Riga and Warsaw, the Russian threat is well understood. However, countries like Germany, Belgium, Portugal, France and others still view Russia’s war against Ukraine as a regional issue.

Fortunately, leaders such as Kaja Kallas are advocating for a long-term strategy against Russia. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, I have argued that we must prepare for a protracted conflict, as long as Putin’s regime remains in power, Russia will continue to pose a threat to Ukraine and the whole of Europe.

Strategic vision

Given your views on NATO's evolution and the need for a new coalition, potentially the so-called «coalition of the willing», how do you envisage its structure? What strategic or institutional frameworks will be important to effectively counter Russian aggression, considering internal challenges within NATO, particularly due to the influence of populist leaders, including Trump?

During my time at NATO, I was proud of my team’s ability to anticipate challenges before they emerged, especially regarding NATO’s enlargement. I was actively involved in the admission of new members, including the Baltic States, Slovenia and Slovakia.

One of the moments I had hoped to witness was seeing Ukraine’s flag at NATO headquarters, but I no longer believe that is a realistic goal

Instead, I believe Ukraine should focus on building a new coalition with like-minded countries, rather than pursuing NATO membership. The Alliance, particularly under the influence of destructive politics, is becoming increasingly divided.

If I were advising President Zelensky, I would recommend not wasting energy on NATO accession but rather focusing on strengthening a broader, more flexible alliance to counter Russian aggression. This would allow us to move beyond the status quo and prepare for the future.

Considering the current dynamics within NATO, how long do you think the Alliance can maintain its current structure before significant changes become inevitable? Do you have a timeframe in mind?

When President Trump was elected, I predicted he would undermine the rules-based order, and we are already seeing significant damage done to NATO, especially concerning the US commitments. European countries have started discussing enhancing the European pillar within NATO, planning to prepare for a potential US withdrawal within five to ten years. However, I believe that timeframe is overly optimistic - we may have only five to ten months before we witness new disruptions.

What lies ahead for NATO? Photo: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI

Looking back, it is clear NATO missed the opportunity to prepare for these challenges. In 2016, I prepared a document for the Secretary General outlining potential harm Trump could cause, but it was dismissed at the time. The issues I raised remain relevant today, and NATO's bureaucracy is too risk-averse to plan for unforeseen scenarios.

If the Alliance fails to act, it risks becoming a reactive organisation that merely responds to Trump’s tweets instead of proactively working toward the future

I hope that countries such as France, the United Kingdom and Northern European states will cooperate with Ukraine to create a new joint alliance capable of better confronting future challenges.

Cover photo: MANDEL NGAN/AFP/East News

This project is co-financed by the Polish-American Freedom Foundation under the «Support Ukraine» programme, implemented by the Education for Democracy Foundation

20
хв

Former NATO strategist Stefanie Babst: «We predicted Donbas, Mariupol and the Black Sea - but they would not listen»

Maryna Stepanenko
subway, people, air alarm

<frame>"More knowledge, less fear" is the slogan of our new publication series. Safety is based on facts, verified information, and solid arguments. The more we know, the better we will be prepared for the future. <frame>

Is Poland ready for a crisis? In an era of geopolitical uncertainty, the war in Ukraine, and rising tensions across Europe, education and societal organisation are crucial. By welcoming over a million Ukrainian refugees, Poland has not only gained new residents but also unique knowledge and experience from people who have learned civil protection under the harshest conditions—under bombs and rocket fire. This is capital that must not be wasted. 

The new law on civil protection and civil defence, in force since January 1, is a concrete response to real threats. At the same time, it offers an opportunity for deeper integration, allowing Poles and Ukrainians living in Poland to prepare together for crises. 

Poland has learned from the tragic events of recent years. The new law emphasises three key areas: modernising and constructing shelters and hiding places, improving alarm and notification systems, and launching widespread civic education to ensure every citizen has basic knowledge of how to act during a crisis. The context of the war in Ukraine makes this even more urgent.

Many Ukrainians living in Poland have priceless experience in civil protection - whether as survivors, organisers, or leaders of evacuation and shelter operations.

This is an opportunity Poland must not miss. When war strikes, no system is ever fully ready. What matters then is how effectively we can use what we already have.

What can serve as a shelter? A practical approach to civil protection begins with this question. Knowledge—that is our first "shelter"!

April 19, 2024 - Children entering a bomb shelter at the Perspectiva Gymnasium in Novovasylivka, Zaporizhzhia region, where classes are held in a hybrid format. Photo: Ukrinform/East News/Dmytro Smolienko

According to the new law, every basement, underground garage, or tunnel can serve as a hiding place. It’s worth taking a moment to look around and ask yourself, "What would I do in case of danger?" 

It’s better to know in advance than to scramble during chaos. 

Here, the experience of Ukrainians in Poland becomes invaluable. Those who have survived bomb alerts can share practical knowledge with Poles, including how to organise life in shelters, secure water and food supplies, address the psychological aspects of survival, and utilise mobile alert apps that have become critical tools in Ukraine. This is not theory. These are real-life experiences from people who face the consequences of war every single day.
Their testimony is more valuable than any textbook could be. 

Education in this field is the key to safety. Poland must harness the knowledge of Ukrainians and launch a wide educational campaign as soon as possible. 
According to the new law, local governments and fire services will play a central role in civil protection. However, in practice, the system will only function effectively if hundreds of thousands of people are involved. 

Ukrainians who have faced real threats can become instructors, educators, and leaders of this change. NGOS are already playing a significant role in organising training for both Ukrainians and Poles. 

This will benefit everyone. Polish municipalities urgently need practitioners who understand the realities of crises.

Every citizen on the front lines.

The new law places local governments in charge of implementing the civil protection system, meaning the battle for the effectiveness of this law will be fought where Poles and Ukrainians live nearby. It is essential to acknowledge that women played a vital role in Ukraine’s civil protection efforts, from rescue workers and volunteers to leaders of humanitarian organisations. They ensured survival amid chaos. 

In Poland, too, women can become the driving force behind such changes, joining local governments, NGOS, and educational teams. 

Is Poland ready for a crisis and civil protection?

Poland is better prepared today than it was a few years ago. The new law represents a significant step forward, but infrastructure alone will not be sufficient.

What will truly matter is the genuine engagement of citizens in education and crisis response, the effective application of Ukrainian experience, and practical cooperation among local governments, NGOS, and the central government.

Today, Poland is in a better situation than a few years ago. The new law is an important step, but one infrastructure is not enough. The real involvement of citizens in training and the elimination of the consequences of emergencies, the wise use of Ukrainians' experience and effective cooperation between local governments, organizations and the government will be crucial.

April 1, 2024 – Zaporizhzhia. Two workers in a new modular underground bomb shelter for 100 people, being built in the courtyard of a five-story residential building damaged by a Russian S-300 missile on October 6, 2022, now under repair. Photo: Ukrinform/East News/Dmytro Smolienko 

This isn’t a Hollywood disaster movie scenario. It’s reality—a reality we must understand and prepare for.  In the 21st century, security isn’t just about armies; it’s about conscious, organised societies. And building them starts with education—education based on facts, not fearmongering. 

Security is our shared responsibility.

It’s not just the domain of the state. It’s not something the government can "provide" like a service.  It’s something we build and give to each other.  Of course, institutions, regulations, alarm systems, and shelters are vital. But what truly determines survival during a crisis is people—their relationships, willingness to help, ability to act under stress, and the awareness that, in challenging moments, we are not alone. 
Every one of us is part of the security system—from the teacher who teaches first aid, to the neighbour who knows the nearest shelter location, to the volunteer who helps newly arrived refugees adjust to a new reality. 

The strength of a nation lies in the strength of its society—and society is strong when its members know they can count on one another. 

In the past, those who realised that the best defence wasn’t walls or bunkers, but well-prepared, united people, were the ones who prevailed.  In Ukraine, social mobilisation saved thousands of lives.  In Poland, we have a chance to learn from this experience before a crisis forces us to.

20
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Knowledge is our first shelter

Julia Boguslavska

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