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How Much Did U.S. Aid to Ukraine Really Cost? A Study by Economists for Ukraine
"The main goal of this study is to prevent disinformation regarding the aid provided by the United States to Ukraine. It also aims to demonstrate that European countries and the United Kingdom have provided Ukraine with equipment, weapons, and other types of aid in proportions comparable to the U.S. contribution," says one of the lead authors of the study, Anastassia Fedyk, professor of finance at the University of California, Berkeley
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in the USA, September 2024. Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine
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Over the past week, former President Donald Trump has mentioned various figures regarding the military aid the United States has provided to Ukraine over three years of war. He has cited amounts such as $500 billion and $350 billion.
According to estimates by the "Economists for Ukraine" group, the military aid transferred by the U.S. to Ukraine amounts to $18.3 billion. An additional $32.6 billion represents direct budgetary support in the form of reimbursements, which was distributed, among other means, through the World Bank. Meanwhile, the U.S. government has assessed the total volume of its military aid to Ukraine at $65.9 billion.
— We analyzed a vast amount of publicly available data and identified the reasons for discrepancies in the reported figures, — explains Anastassia Fedyk. — When considering only military aid, our experts assessed all the equipment and technology Ukraine was set to receive, taking into account their condition, age, and usability. It makes a significant difference whether equipment was newly manufactured by American companies last year or if it had been out of use for over a decade and was marked for decommissioning. Evaluating all such equipment at the same value is incorrect.
"In 2024, the total amount of military aid to Ukraine constituted 0.25% of the U.S. annual federal budget" — Anastassia Fedyk
For instance, while the U.S. Department of Defense reports that it has transferred $31 billion worth of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine (under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the U.S. president to provide military aid from Pentagon stockpiles without congressional approval), the majority of this equipment was outdated and no longer in use by the U.S. Armed Forces. According to expert estimates, the actual value of this aid is around $12.5 billion.
Another crucial aspect to consider when calculating expenses is how much the United States has gained in profit or other benefits by providing aid to Ukraine.
— We plan to analyze this aspect in detail in our next study and evaluate the specific economic benefits the U.S. has gained from military and financial support to Ukraine. This includes increased profits for the defense industry and new contracts for American companies, — notes Anastassia Fedyk.
Scholars from the University of California, Berkeley, the Stockholm School of Economics, Minerva University, and the AI for Good Foundation worked on the report for approximately two months. "The main goal of this study is to prevent disinformation and the spread of false data regarding U.S. aid to Ukraine. It also aims to demonstrate, using concrete figures, that European countries and the United Kingdom have provided Ukraine with equipment, weapons, and other types of aid in proportions comparable to the U.S. contribution," Fedyk explains. Notably, the European Union estimates the total volume of its financial, military, and humanitarian assistance at $145 billion, while the United Kingdom has provided nearly $16 billion.
Why, then, does former U.S. President Donald Trump exaggerate the aid figures so drastically? According to Anastassia Fedyk, this may be an attempt to negotiate more favorable terms in upcoming resource agreements or a strategy to discredit the previous administration by portraying its policies as unprofessional and wasteful. Specifically, Trump may be trying to create the impression that his predecessors neglected American citizens while allegedly spending "enormous" amounts to support Ukraine, which is suffering from the war with Russia.
— That is why it was important for us to present accurate data — specific amounts, figures, and facts — to show the real state of affairs. We wanted to prove that American citizens were not deprived of access to social or government services due to aid to Ukraine, explains Anastassia Fedyk.
On the contrary, many people gained jobs, and companies involved in the production and supply of aid expanded their manufacturing capacities and contributed to budget revenues
In her opinion, the results of this analysis will also be useful for Ukraine, as they will allow for negotiations on equal terms, provide a better understanding of the real value of the aid received, and prevent manipulations regarding its scale.
The researchers from "Economists for Ukraine" also analyzed allegations of corruption and possible embezzlement of funds coming from the U.S.
They found that the level of corruption associated with the use of American aid is among the lowest compared to all other countries that have received support from the United States
— Accusations of corruption can harm Ukraine’s reputation as an aid recipient. However, thorough audits indicate that Ukraine has handled the provided funds responsibly. Moreover, budgetary assistance was granted in the form of expense reimbursements based on receipts. This should be emphasized to prevent the formation of a negative image, which some try to impose, notes Professor Fedyk.
In her view, American citizens' attitudes toward Ukraine have not deteriorated, but many still do not fully understand the actual scale of aid provided to Ukraine. Americans continue to support Ukraine and consider their assistance important and beneficial. Therefore, it is crucial to spread truthful information to avoid misunderstandings, even when high-ranking officials fuel such misunderstandings.
Economists for Ukraine is a non-partisan economic think-tank, part of the AI for Good Foundation, a US 501(c)(3) Public Charity whose mission is to promote economic and community resilience. The Economists for Ukraine network includes more than 400 economists representing the world’s leading academic, scientific, and economic institutions.
Journalist, editor. She has lived in Poland since 2015 and has worked for various Ukrainian publications: «Postup», «Livyi Bereg», «Profil» and «Realist.online». She is the author of publications on Ukrainian-Polish cooperation, covering topics such as economic and border issues, cultural heritage and commemoration. She is also a co-organiser of journalistic initiatives promoting Ukrainian-Polish friendship. She has worked as a trainer for the EU programme «Women’s and Children’s Rights in Ukraine: Communication Component». Her interests include personal development and neurolinguistic programming, among others.
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Every fourth country in the world has experienced regression in the field of women's rights, according to the latest UN Women 2024 report, and in the European Union, about 50 million women continue to experience high levels of sexual and physical violence - both at home and at work, as well as in public spaces.
We speak with Doctor of Sociology, Professor at the University of Warsaw, Elżbieta Korolczuk, about the situation of women's rights in the world, Poland and Ukraine, as well as about what should be done to protect and support women's rights, which are once again under threat.
The Influence of the Church
Olga Pakosh: Professor, what does the regression of women's rights mean?
Elżbieta Korolczuk: It means that in many countries, the process of equalising opportunities has stalled, and in some, the situation regarding existing rights has even worsened.
Of course, it has never been the case that all participants in public life, even in liberal countries, accepted gender equality
There have always been groups opposing women's rights - reproductive rights, the right to abortion, contraception or women's equality in political life.
But in democratic countries, there was a general consensus that we should strive for the full participation of women in social and political life. Groups opposing this remained on the margins of public life. Today, anti-gender views are moving to the centre of public discussion and - depending on the country - take various forms.
For example, in Afghanistan, where in different periods of the twentieth century laws were introduced to improve the situation of women, today women have no rights whatsoever. Fundamentalists have ensured that women cannot work, leave the house alone or study. They cannot participate in public or political life, and most of them also experience violence - there is data showing that this may concern up to 85 per cent of Afghan women.
Meanwhile, in the United States, where for many years the political mainstream shared the belief that women's rights were an obvious part of democracy, there is now an assault on both democracy and women's rights. Both are connected to the development of anti-gender and conservative movements, which often resonate with organised religions, such as Christianity and Islam, as well as Orthodox Judaism, which has also never been a friend to women.
- And what about Poland? It has been almost two years since the change of government. Why, despite previous promises, has no action been taken to at least partially regulate the issue of abortion?
- Firstly, because the current political class - and this applies not only to Poland but also to many other countries - is significantly more conservative than the majority of society. Secondly, the issue of women's rights and minority rights remains under the strong influence of religious institutions.
In Poland, we are observing a distinct cultural conflict: the country is rapidly secularising - the younger generation is moving away from institutional religion, and often from faith altogether. At the same time, a significant portion of voters, predominantly older people, remains deeply religious. The Church as a political institution still plays an enormous role, both at the national level and locally. Bishops often effectively participate in local political life. The economic power of the Church also carries great weight - it remains one of the largest property owners in the country.
- Could a change of president influence anything?
- Can we trust politicians? This is a question many people are asking themselves today. Promises were already made two years ago, during the parliamentary elections. However, as research shows, a significant portion of young women who voted for the current coalition in 2023 now feels disappointed and disillusioned. During the campaign, mobilisation efforts were directed specifically at them, notably through promises regarding reproductive rights, financial support concerning issues related to abortion, equality for the LGBT community and so on. At present, these promises remain unfulfilled. What will change after the presidential elections - we shall see.
I fear we are dealing with the ignoring of female voters: at first, something is promised to them to secure their votes, and later, the promises are not fulfilled
Such a strategy not only alienates specific groups of voters but also generally undermines trust in democracy as a political system. The question is to what extent the politicians themselves realise this and whether they understand the long-term consequences of such actions.
As a sociologist, I do not have excessive expectations. However, as a citizen, I hope that the ruling parties will eventually awaken and that the change of president will lead at least to the resolution of such basic issues as the abortion ban or inequality in LGBT rights.
In Poland, a victim is not obliged to prove that she said «no» to the rapist
- What is the current situation regarding women's rights in Ukraine?
- War, like any crisis, always negatively affects society. On the one hand, of course, it affects men, as they predominantly die at the frontline or bear other severe consequences related to military service. On the other hand, the burden of daily survival falls squarely on the shoulders of women. This concerns not only professional work but also activities connected with maintaining the lives of families, communities and the general everyday functioning of people. Moreover, many women serve in the Ukrainian army, carrying, in essence, a double burden.
A Ukrainian woman among the rubble of a house after Russian shelling in Mykolaiv, August 2nd 2022. Photo: Kostiantyn Liberov/AP/Associated Press/East News
War also means the suspension of normal political struggle, which likewise complicates the ability of minorities to defend their rights. Individual rights, as well as the rights of particular groups, are pushed into the background in the face of the harsh reality of resisting Russian aggression.
Nevertheless, it is noticeable that politically, Ukraine is striving for integration with Europe, and this opens opportunities for the implementation of equal rights solutions. For example, one can compare Ukraine and Georgia - two post-Soviet states that started from similar positions. Ukraine resolutely chose the path of European integration, which, incidentally, became one of the factors of the military conflict, and in this context, adopted many decisions, such as the ratification of the Istanbul Convention and the protection of the rights of women and minorities. Georgia, by contrast, has moved in the opposite direction. It has drawn closer to Russia - notably through religious issues, restrictions on the activities of non-governmental organisations and the strengthened influence of the Orthodox Church.
The Georgian government is moving towards restricting the rights of minorities, particularly LGBT people, which is part of a broader process of narrowing the rights of civil society and the space for grassroots movements. This indicates that we are dealing not only with ideological or cultural differences, the attitude towards equality is also an element of the geopolitical choice made by states. It was the same in the case of Poland and other countries that joined the EU - this process was linked to the acceptance of at least some obligations in the field of equality. And this undoubtedly matters for the specific decisions taken by the state, although the results do not always meet expectations.
During a protest in Tbilisi, April 18th 2024. Photo: VANO SHLAMOV/AFP/East News
- What laws or legal mechanisms are lacking in Ukraine to support women's rights? Is the problem solely due to the crisis caused by the war?
- I am not a specialist in Ukrainian affairs - it is worth asking Ukrainian women themselves about this. However, I think the situation is complicated. On the one hand, it is worth asking: how open are state institutions to the voices of minorities, including women? How much do they actually represent groups that are in a vulnerable position in society?
On the other hand, the problem also lies in the way existing norms are implemented. For example, when it comes to protection from violence, one of the most fundamental issues. If such protection does not exist, it is clear that female citizens do not have equal rights.
If they are not protected in their own home or on the street, there is no point in talking about equal opportunities in politics or other fields
And here the question arises: is a state that is undergoing such a deep crisis - military, economic, infrastructural - capable of effectively guaranteeing women the protection from violence? I believe we must demand this, but at the same time, we should understand that it is an extremely difficult task.
- And what about Poland? Is Polish legislation effective in the context of protecting women?
- Yes, in many areas there are quite good legal standards, but often they are not properly implemented. An example can be the changes introduced in February this year - regarding the definition of rape.
According to the new provisions, rape is any violation of sexual boundaries without clear consent. That is, theoretically, now the victim is not obliged to prove that she said «no» - instead, the perpetrator must prove that he obtained consent
At the same time, we do not have any large-scale information campaign on this matter. Most people do not even know that anything has changed. There are no relevant educational programmes. There are not enough training sessions for the police and prosecutors that would allow for the effective implementation of the new standards.
Such matters should be on the front pages of newspapers
«I can't believe we still have to protest this shit». Protest in the USA. Photo: Shutterstock
«Women's rights are not given once and for all»
- The United States was once an example in the fight for women's rights and the implementation of these rights. What about now? Are the suffragettes turning in their graves?
- I hope that the United States will become not only an example of how what seemed to have been achieved can be destroyed, but also teach us how to truly maintain it. It is worth emphasising that, compared to Poland, Ukraine and most Eastern European countries, women's rights in the USA were guaranteed quite late, at a time when most women in Eastern Europe were already working and had a certain degree of financial independence.
In Poland, women gained the right to abortion in 1953, while in the USA, the federal right to terminate a pregnancy was introduced only in the mid-1970s.
Although in the early 1960s and 1970s women were fighting for access to legal abortions, over the last five decades, the USA has created the image of a country where the rights of minorities and women are highly developed
However, this struggle for equality was always tense, and opponents of equal rights never stood aside.
Today, the main difference is that part of the political elite has become extremely conservative, and the system of rights protection at the federal level is beginning to collapse. This particularly concerns decisions of the Supreme Court, which has overturned provisions that guaranteed the right to abortion at the federal level, notably the ruling in Roe v. Wade.
These changes show how important it is to constantly monitor adherence to the principles of equality. Women's rights are not given once and for all. This also demonstrates the link between the rights of women and minorities and democracy.
On the one hand, in undemocratic countries, the erosion of women's rights is very clearly visible, as women are usually the first group to lose their rights. When a rigid power hierarchy is created, women generally end up at the bottom.
On the other hand, criticism of women's rights is often used as a pretext for attacks on democratic values and institutions. Attacks on gender equality today are a tool in the hands of anti-democratic movements, which mobilise society by stirring up fear and convincing people that both gender equality and democracy itself have gone too far. An example is Trump's campaign against Kamala Harris, who was portrayed as a spokesperson for the transgender community, and topics related to funding gender reassignment surgeries in prisons were used to mobilise voters and at the same time to ridicule liberal democracy.
The strategy of right-wing populists is to ridicule the topics of equality, portraying them as absurd and as a threat to women themselves, while at the same time inciting society against democracy as such
Demonstration in support of women's rights in Afghanistan, London, March 8th 2024. Photo: HENRY NICHOLLS/AFP/East News
- What can we, ordinary women, now do in Poland and Ukraine to protect our rights?
- The answer has already been given to us by the suffragettes: no one will grant us rights for free, we must fight for them. And once we have gained them, we must defend them.
It is a bit like marriage. Usually, if we take on all the obligations but do not demand what is ours, the other side will not help and will not voluntarily grant us our rights
The same applies to political life.
It is about voting, supporting organisations that help women, as well as those who take it to the streets - people who mobilise. It is about supporting specific women who act for others. Even if we ourselves are not ready to engage, we can support them. It is about supporting specific female politicians, as well as holding them accountable. It is about checking what they are doing, on what basis, and expressing our opinion. This is something we must never renounce. Whether on Facebook, in public discussions or at the workplace.
We still live in a good place where our voice has weight
We are not in Afghanistan - we are in a place where we have a voice, and we can use it.
We must make an effort, get used to the fact that political activity is simply part of our lives, not a marginal thing that appears only, for example, during elections, or does not appear at all. Because then we voluntarily give up the possibility of changing the world.
There are women who oppose the right to abortion. Of course, they have the right to do so. But unfortunately, they act neither in their own interest nor in the interest of their sisters, friends, or daughters. No one is forcing anyone to have an abortion. But in a world where women are forbidden to do so, it is ordinary women who will pay for this ban with their lives, health, and mental well-being. And we simply should not agree to such a world.
Three years of war is, without exaggeration, a true struggle for all nations. Some are ready to stand side by side with Ukraine until victory, some have begun to momentarily doubt what to do next, and some have completely lost faith. Yet there are those who never cease to do good for the benefit of Ukraine and the entire free world. Thousands of Ukrainian and Polish women make invaluable contributions to the triumph of democracy every day. Despite the exhaustion of three years of war, they continue their relentless work for the sake of a brighter future. And we, the international magazine Sestry.eu, tell the stories of these incredible women who change the world for the better every day.
In 2024, the editorial team of Sestry.eu established a special award, «Portraits of sisterhood», to honour women who, through their active civic stance and willingness to sacrifice, do everything possible to help those who need it most.
This year, the award ceremony will take place on March 4th 2025 in Warsaw. The Honourable Chapter has selected 12 nominees. From these, the laureates of the «Portraits of sisterhood» award will be chosen - a Ukrainian and a Polish woman as the embodiment of close mutual support and cooperation in Polish-Ukrainian dialogue, as well as an example of true sisterhood.
Honourable committee of the «Portraits of sisterhood» award:
Dominika Kulczyk, entrepreneur, President of the Kulczyk Foundation
Agnieszka Holland, Polish film director
Kateryna Bodnar, wife of the Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the Republic of Poland
Natalka Panchenko, leader of «Euromaidan-Warsaw», chairperson of the Stand with Ukraine Foundation
Adriana Porowska, Minister for Civil Society Affairs
Myroslava Keryk, President of the Board of the «Ukrainian House» Foundation, Warsaw
Myroslava Gongadze, head of broadcasting for Voice of America in Eastern Europe
Bianka Zalewska, Polish journalist
Elwira Niewiera, Polish film director
Kateryna Glazkova, Executive Director of the Union of Ukrainian Entrepreneurs
Joanna Mosiej, Editor in Chief of Sestry.eu
Maria Górska, Editor in Chief of Sława TV
Nominees for the «Portraits of sisterhood» Award, Poland:
Agnieszka Zach, Polish volunteer
Photo: Agnieszka Rodowicz
Before the full-scale war in Ukraine, Agnieszka Zach worked as a guide in Poland’s largest nature reserve - Biebrza National Park. She was raising four children and building a house. On February 24th 2022, her life changed drastically. She decided to dedicate herself to helping Ukrainians. In one of her homes, she sheltered women with children fleeing the war. Later, she began travelling to Ukraine as a volunteer. For nearly three years, Agnieszka has been delivering humanitarian aid to the military on the frontlines. Regardless of the weather conditions, she walks barefoot - earning her the nicknames «Barefoot» or «Witch».
Anna Lazar, curator, art historian, translator
Photo: Private archive
Anna Lazar is a Polish curator, art historian, literary translator, and public figure who has been building cultural bridges between Poland and Ukraine for many years. She is a member of the Women’s Archive of the Institute of Literary Research of the Polish Academy of Sciences and the Polish section of AICA. She graduated in Ukrainian and Polish philology, as well as in art history, from the University of Warsaw. For seven years, she served as Deputy Director of the Polish Institute in Kyiv. In her interdisciplinary projects, Lazar combines contemporary art with historical and social reflection. Her translation portfolio includes both classical and modern works of Ukrainian literature.
Anna is also engaged in voluntary work. Her activities bring together artists, writers, and thinkers from both countries, broadening the context of Ukrainian culture.
Monika Andruszewska, war correspondent and volunteer
Photo: private archive
Polish war correspondent and volunteer Monika Andruszewska has lived in Ukraine since the Revolution of Dignity. In 2014, she joined volunteers travelling to eastern Ukraine. In her reports, she actively covered everything that was happening on the frontline. She witnessed combat operations in the Donetsk airport area. When the full-scale war began, Monika Andruszewska risked her life to evacuate 30 Ukrainians from under shelling in Irpin, near Kyiv.
Monika is now actively involved in voluntary work and, in collaboration with the Lemkin Centre (Warsaw), is collecting evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine. For her achievements, she has been awarded Poland’s Gold Cross of Merit, the Stand With Ukraine Awards, and the Polish Journalists Association award for her report «Bierz ciało, póki dają» (from Polish: «Take the body while they are still giving it»), dedicated to Ukrainian mothers searching for their sons who have gone missing in the war.
Anna Dąbrowska, president of the Homo Faber association
Photo: private archive
Anna Dąbrowska is the President of the Lublin-based Homo Faber association and Co-Chair of the Migration Consortium. She works on issues concerning the impact of migration on local communities and develops integration policies at the city level. She is also a co-founder of «Baobab» - a social meeting space for communities in Lublin.
Olga Piasecka-Nieć - psychologist, president of the «Kocham Dębniki» foundation
Photo: private archive
Founder and President of the «Kocham Dębniki» («I Love Dębniki») foundation. Today, the foundation supports over 1300 Ukrainian families. In February 2022, she put her life and career on hold to stand with Ukrainian women and families seeking refuge from the war in Poland.
Olga strives to help Ukrainian women and their children rebuild their shattered lives. She believes that the ability to turn crisis into strength and growth depends on a supportive environment and community: «What I actively aspire to achieve is for this experience to be passed on. And it is happening! Women returning to Ukraine take with them what they have learned here and incorporate it into their lives. They build new communities around them, using the knowledge they have gained here».
Anna Suśka-Jakubowska
Photo: private archive
Since 2013, Anna Jakubowska has worked at the Camillian Mission for Social Assistance, coordinating a project to prepare apartments for the homeless. Following the outbreak of the full-scale invasion, she was responsible for temporary accommodation for refugees at the social boarding house «Saint Lazarus» and helped refugee families settle into rented flats.
Nominees for the «Portraits of sisterhood» Award, Ukraine:
Yuliia «Taira» Paievska - servicewoman, paramedic
Photo: private archive
Yuliia Paievska, known by the callsign «Taira», provided medical aid to participants of the Revolution of Dignity. As the leader of the volunteer paramedic unit «Taira’s Angels», she conducted tactical medical training on the frontline from 2014 to 2018. On March 16th 2022, during the defence of Mariupol, she was captured by Russian forces and was released on June 17th 2022.
In 2023, Yuliia Paievska became a laureate of the International Women of Courage award. The US State Department honoured her with the title of «The World’s Bravest Woman». Additionally, she received an award at the «Invictus Games» in Germany. She has been decorated with the President of Ukraine’s distinction «For Humanitarian Participation in the Anti-Terrorist Operation» and the «People’s Hero of Ukraine» order. Currently, Taira has joined the 13th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine, «Khartia».
Olena Apchel - film director, servicewoman
Photo: private archive
Olena Apchel is a theatre scholar, director and volunteer. She actively participated in the Revolution of Dignity - both at the Kyiv and Kharkiv Maidans. From 2021 to 2022, she headed the social programmes department at Warsaw’s «Nowy Teatr». During this time, she became one of the active members of the Ukrainian volunteer community in Poland. In the Autumn of 2022, she moved to Berlin, where she worked as co-director of Theatertreffen, the largest theatre festival in the German-speaking world.
After three years abroad, Olena Apchel returned to Ukraine. In May 2024, she joined the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Mariana Mamonova - former Kremlin captive, psychotherapist, founder of a charity foundation
Photo: private archive
Mariana Mamonova joined the military in 2018, where she met her future husband, a National Guard service member. In the spring of 2022, the military medic was captured while three months pregnant. She was exchanged just three days before giving birth.
Following her release, Mamonova founded a charity foundation to assist women who have survived Russian captivity. Helping these women has become not just her job but her life's mission: «The goal of our foundation is to support women who have endured captivity. To help them rehabilitate - mentally, physically, and spiritually». The foundation also provides assistance to pregnant wives of service members, pregnant veterans, and pregnant women who have lost their husbands in the war.
Olga Rudnieva - CEO of Superhumans Center
Photo: private archive
Olga Rudnieva is the CEO and co-founder of the Superhumans Center, a clinic providing psychological assistance, prosthetics, reconstructive surgery, and rehabilitation for people affected by war. From the first days of the war, she led the largest logistics hub in Europe - HelpUkraine Center, created in partnership with Nova Poshta, Rozetka, and the TIS terminal.
From 2004 to August 2022, she served as the director of the Olena Pinchuk Foundation and was the coordinator of the sexual education space, Dialog Hub. She is also a co-founder of Veteran Hub, a centre providing comprehensive services for veterans.
Under Olga’s leadership, some of the most extensive media campaigns and charitable concerts have taken place, including performances by Elton John, Queen, and Paul McCartney. Over the past seven years, she has consistently been listed among Ukraine’s most successful women by NV and Ukrainska Pravda. In 2024, Olga was included in the BBC’s Top 100 Women of the Year.
Oleksandra Mezinova - director and founder of the «Sirius» animal shelter
Photo: private archive
Oleksandra Mezinova manages the «Sirius» shelter in Fedorivka, near Kyiv. Before the war, it was home to 3500 animals. Currently, the shelter houses just over 3200 - despite military personnel and volunteers constantly bringing in rescued cats, dogs, and other animals. Each month, the shelter takes in around 50 to 60 animals, many from frontline areas and combat zones. The shelter is involved in rescuing, treating, sterilising, and rehoming animals, as well as conducting educational and awareness-raising work. Additionally, «Sirius» supports low-income pet owners, mini-shelters, and their caretakers, who are often elderly people.
This year, the shelter marks its 25th anniversary. Over this time, more than 13 thousand animals have been rescued, with over 10 thousand finding loving homes. In 2023, «Sirius» received the honorary award «Choice of the Country». In 2022, its founder, Oleksandra Mezinova, was awarded the Order of Princess Olga.
Liudmyla Huseinova - human rights defender, head of the NGO «Numo, Sestry!»
Photo: Sasha Maslov
Since the beginning of the occupation, from 2014 to her arrest in 2019, Liudmyla Huseinova cared for children from a disbanded orphanage in the occupied Novoazovsk district. She brought them clothes, as well as Ukrainian books and postcards from free Ukrainian territory. She also assisted Ukrainian soldiers defending Mariupol at the time. She received a signed Ukrainian flag from them, which she managed to smuggle into the occupied territory and hide. The flag was not discovered during a search and remains hidden to this day.
Following her arrest in 2019, she was taken to «Isolation» and later transferred to the Donetsk detention centre. On October 17th 2022, Huseinova was released as part of a «women’s exchange». She now focuses on defending the rights of those affected by conflict-related sexual violence, former civilian prisoners, and supporting women who are still in captivity or under occupation. On 6 December, she founded and took leadership of the NGO «Numo, Sestry!», which unites women who have survived captivity, conflict-related sexual violence, torture, and other consequences of Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Partners of the «Portraits of sisterhood» award:
Ambasada Ukrainy w Rzeczpospolitej Polskiej
Patronat Honorowy Prezydenta Miasta Sopot
Kulczyk Foundation
Przemysław Krych
Ulatowski Family Foundation
Federacja Przedsiębiorców Polskich
Fundacja PKO BP
Foundation Kredo
Fundacja Edukacja dla Demokracji
Polsko-Amerykańska Fundacja Wolności
Wspieramy Ukrainę
Żabka
YES
Nova Post
TVP Info
Biełsat TV
PAP
Onet
Espreso TV
NV.ua
New Eastern Europe
СУП
We also encourage our readers to take part in the voting and choose the leader who deserves the special «Portraits of sisterhood» Readers' Award. To vote, simply follow this link. Voting will be open until February 22nd 2025.
The West had all the tools to foresee Russia's war against Ukraine - and chose to ignore them. Even before 2014, analysis reached NATO's highest offices: the annexation of Crimea, the threat to Mariupol, the Russian Federation's dominance in the Black Sea. The forecasts were accurate, but most member states opted for the illusion of partnership with the Kremlin.
Are changes still possible? What is required to achieve them? And can NATO remain an effective security alliance in a new era of threats? These and other questions were addressed in an interview with Sestry by Dr Stefanie Babst - one of the most influential security strategists in Europe, who worked at NATO for over 20 years, including as Head of the Strategic Foresight Team. Today, she is an independent analyst, the author of a book on the West's «blind spots» in its strategy toward Russia, and an active participant in international discussions on war, peace and security.
Ukraine, Russia and the strategic miscalculations of the West
Maryna Stepanenko: You led NATO's Strategic Foresight Team. How do you assess the West's ability to foresee Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine? Were there signals that were simply not heard, or perhaps deliberately ignored?
Stefanie Babst: There were many warnings that went unheeded. Allow me to explain. In international relations, it is crucial to accurately assess the mindset, capabilities and intentions of another actor. NATO failed to do this with Russia. As the Head of Strategic Foresight at the Alliance, I issued the first serious warning in 2013 - a few months before the annexation of Crimea. I presented an analysis outlining Russia's malicious intentions and its military preparations against Ukraine.
It was reviewed by the Secretary General and discussed with member states, but no action was taken
Some countries - the Baltic States and Poland - took the analysis seriously. Others - notably Germany, the United States and the United Kingdom - preferred to maintain the NATO-Russia partnership. From 2014 onwards, we intensified our analysis, forecasting actions such as the seizure of Mariupol, dominance in the Black Sea and the use of Donbas as a staging ground. These forecasts were presented at the highest levels, including the NATO Council, but were ultimately dismissed.
In 2015 and 2016, we broadened our focus to include China and its ties with Russia, offering future scenarios and forecasting so-called «black swans» - high-impact events that are hard to predict, seem unlikely but could have serious consequences if they occur. Again, many perceived this only as «intellectual exercises». Thus, NATO possessed the tools of foresight - and chose to ignore them. And that comes at a very high cost.
In your work, you call for a review of the West's strategy toward Russia. In your view, what «blind spots» remain in Western approaches - particularly regarding support for Ukraine?
Three years ago, I called for a powerful, multifaceted deterrence strategy to help Ukraine not just freeze the war but win it. I invoked George Kennan's Cold War approach, urging the use of all available instruments - economic, diplomatic and military - to push Russia out of Ukraine. But apart from some Baltic and Northern European countries, no one took this seriously.
NATO and the EU still lack a defined end goal. If Ukraine's victory were the objective, a corresponding strategy would have been developed
Instead, Western leaders underestimated Ukraine's resilience and failed to act decisively even after Russia crossed countless red lines. President Biden, despite his commitment to Ukraine, framed his approach around what the United States would not do: we will not provoke Russia, we will not give Ukrainians long-range weapons, we will not do this or that. This is not a strategy. Now, with Trump’s return, many European governments are passively hoping for a US-Russian agreement that merely freezes the war - something I believe is dangerous both for Ukraine and Europe.
My main criticism is the lack of political will in the West. Too many still see this as Russia's war against Ukrainians. But it is our war too
Stefanie, why do you think Europe failed to prepare effectively for Trump’s presidency?
Planning within NATO and European governments is often difficult, as politicians typically focus on short-term goals, usually only a month ahead. In times of emergency, particularly due to Washington's unpredictability, Europe must abandon crisis management mode and stop reacting to every event, such as a new tweet.
Europe must be firm with the United States, clearly communicating that their actions - including threats to countries like Canada and Denmark, withholding intelligence from Ukraine and halting cyber operations against Russia - are unacceptable. These decisions had deadly consequences, and member states should not be afraid to hold the United States accountable for violating the fundamental principles of the Washington Treaty.
Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General, recently visited Florida to meet President Trump, hoping to impress him with defence spending figures. He praised Trump’s leadership and even claimed that Trump had «broken the deadlock» in relations with Russia. However, this is detached from the reality of ongoing Russian attacks.
If the NATO Secretary General lacks a clear message, the best approach is silence, focusing on supporting member states and protecting them from any threat. We do not have time for empty words and political games.
Europeans must remain immune to American political theatre, focusing on strengthening defence capability and supporting Ukraine’s defence industry so it can resist Russian aggression
Rutte: NATO wants to make Ukraine a strong state. Photo: Office of the President of Ukraine
Migration and war
Germany is no longer the EU leader in asylum requests from South American and Middle Eastern refugees. At the same time, in the first quarter of 2025, applications from Ukrainians rose by 84 per cent. What does this indicate?
It is entirely understandable that many Ukrainians have chosen to leave their country for personal and professional reasons - this is natural, and no one should be blamed for it. But this migration has political consequences in Germany, particularly when far-right parties exploit it by portraying Ukrainian refugees as a burden on the social system, regardless of their skills or motivation. These sentiments are especially strong in eastern Germany, where parties like AfD and certain left-wing populist movements have gained support.
What concerns me is the lack of strong counteraction from the federal government in Berlin - clearer messaging and political leadership are needed
If more Ukrainians arrive, I hope the next government will take a positive stance, recognising that many of them can significantly contribute to the German workforce. This would mean reducing bureaucracy, accelerating integration and facilitating their employment. Whether this happens remains to be seen.
Continuing on this topic, in recent weeks, some districts in Germany have publicly declared that they can no longer accommodate Ukrainian refugees due to overburdened social systems. How do you assess these sentiments?
It is true that local communities across Germany still face difficulties in accommodating refugees - an issue that arose after Chancellor Merkel’s decision to open the borders, leading to a large influx of refugees from Syria, Afghanistan and other countries. Many municipalities remain overwhelmed by demands for housing, language training and integration support. However, Ukrainian refugees do not pose the same challenges.
Ukrainians generally integrate well, bring strong skills and education and do not contribute to social tensions
In contrast, some refugees from the Middle East struggle to adapt to liberal democratic norms, which fuels far-right narratives, particularly in eastern Germany. Parties like AfD and figures such as Sahra Wagenknecht exploit this, promoting anti-Ukrainian, pro-concession rhetoric that ignores the reality of Russian occupation.
Unfortunately, mainstream democratic parties are not doing enough to push them back. With growing support from American right-wing populists, such as those connected to Trump or Musk, this polarisation may deepen further, posing a serious threat to democratic cohesion in Europe.
Europe on the brink of war
Amid full-scale war in Ukraine, initiatives have emerged in Poland and Germany to prepare schoolchildren for emergencies. Does this indicate a deeper shift in Europe's security culture, where defence is no longer solely the army's responsibility, but that of the entire society?
Although some defence-related courses have begun in Germany, they remain insufficient, and the wider public remains largely unprepared - both mentally and physically - to play a defensive role.
Serious debates are now underway about reinstating military conscription, but surveys show that two-thirds of people aged 20 to 30 would refuse to serve, with many saying they would rather emigrate than defend the country.
This reflects a deeper issue: decades of political messaging have conditioned Germans to believe they live in peace, surrounded by allies, and need not prepare for conflict
As a result, Germany also lacks bunkers for emergencies, civil defence training and basic resilience measures for the population. Changing this mindset will require strong political leadership. Without it, the Bundeswehr will remain under-equipped and unable to contribute significantly to efforts such as a potential coalition in Ukraine.
We see civil defence becoming part of public policy, from educating children to testing alarm systems. Is Europe beginning to think seriously about its own resilience in the face of potential escalation beyond Ukraine?
Undoubtedly. Some countries, such as Finland, Sweden, Poland and the Baltic States, have prioritised both military capability and societal resilience in recent years. In cities such as Riga and Warsaw, the Russian threat is well understood. However, countries like Germany, Belgium, Portugal, France and others still view Russia’s war against Ukraine as a regional issue.
Fortunately, leaders such as Kaja Kallas are advocating for a long-term strategy against Russia. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, I have argued that we must prepare for a protracted conflict, as long as Putin’s regime remains in power, Russia will continue to pose a threat to Ukraine and the whole of Europe.
Strategic vision
Given your views on NATO's evolution and the need for a new coalition, potentially the so-called «coalition of the willing», how do you envisage its structure? What strategic or institutional frameworks will be important to effectively counter Russian aggression, considering internal challenges within NATO, particularly due to the influence of populist leaders, including Trump?
During my time at NATO, I was proud of my team’s ability to anticipate challenges before they emerged, especially regarding NATO’s enlargement. I was actively involved in the admission of new members, including the Baltic States, Slovenia and Slovakia.
One of the moments I had hoped to witness was seeing Ukraine’s flag at NATO headquarters, but I no longer believe that is a realistic goal
Instead, I believe Ukraine should focus on building a new coalition with like-minded countries, rather than pursuing NATO membership. The Alliance, particularly under the influence of destructive politics, is becoming increasingly divided.
If I were advising President Zelensky, I would recommend not wasting energy on NATO accession but rather focusing on strengthening a broader, more flexible alliance to counter Russian aggression. This would allow us to move beyond the status quo and prepare for the future.
Considering the current dynamics within NATO, how long do you think the Alliance can maintain its current structure before significant changes become inevitable? Do you have a timeframe in mind?
When President Trump was elected, I predicted he would undermine the rules-based order, and we are already seeing significant damage done to NATO, especially concerning the US commitments. European countries have started discussing enhancing the European pillar within NATO, planning to prepare for a potential US withdrawal within five to ten years. However, I believe that timeframe is overly optimistic - we may have only five to ten months before we witness new disruptions.
What lies ahead for NATO? Photo: BRENDAN SMIALOWSKI
Looking back, it is clear NATO missed the opportunity to prepare for these challenges. In 2016, I prepared a document for the Secretary General outlining potential harm Trump could cause, but it was dismissed at the time. The issues I raised remain relevant today, and NATO's bureaucracy is too risk-averse to plan for unforeseen scenarios.
If the Alliance fails to act, it risks becoming a reactive organisation that merely responds to Trump’s tweets instead of proactively working toward the future
I hope that countries such as France, the United Kingdom and Northern European states will cooperate with Ukraine to create a new joint alliance capable of better confronting future challenges.
Cover photo: MANDEL NGAN/AFP/East News
This project is co-financed by the Polish-American Freedom Foundation under the «Support Ukraine» programme, implemented by the Education for Democracy Foundation
I think people don’t realize how bad things were in America even before Trump. If anything, I see Trump as simply someone openly talking about the things the American government has been doing for centuries. By no means am I saying that what Trump is doing is okay – but he is honest about it. After all, the Biden administration deported an average of 57,000 people per month, while the Trump administration deported 37,660 people last month – and yet we never hear about Biden’s deportation plans. We praise liberals for their commitment to human rights, but what have they actually achieved?
They don't protect women's rights, they allow the genocide of Palestinians, they arrest students for protesting, they enable Russia to continue its crimes, and they restrict our freedom of speech. And yet we are expected to vote for them because they are the “lesser evil”? I keep hearing that the future "rests in the hands of young people" because the older generation caused this whole mess. I’m expected to protest, vote, organize – while being cut off from all of it.
What kind of democracy is America, if our only choice is between two evils, both backed by the same powerful interests?
I think when looking at America, we need to ask ourselves: “For whom was it ever good?” It has always been a good country for white Americans, and now it’s probably even better for them. But has it ever been a good country for women? Has it ever been good for people of color? I think we forget this when we idealize America. It was never a great country, and it will never be “great again” unless the past we're referring to is that colonial, racist empire that Trump wants to bring back.
Looking at the “American Dream” from the perspective of a post-communist country in Eastern Europe, it’s easy to idealize it. Nevertheless, I always try to remind people from Eastern Europe that the society, security, education, and healthcare we have here are worth a million times more than the idealized version of what their life could look like in the capitalist utopia of America.
I recently visited New York. Although it’s one of the most expensive cities in the U.S., the price hikes over the past year shocked me. I heard from friends that they can’t afford their rent because it was raised by 25%. Some of them haven't been able to find a job since last summer – and by "job" I mean any job, even in a café or grocery store. And these are people who graduated from prestigious universities like Columbia or NYU.
William Edwards and Kimberly Cambron are married on Valentine's Day at Times Square in New York on February 14, 2025. Photo: Kena Betancur/AFP
Food prices continue to rise. Last year, groceries that lasted me about 10 days cost around $120. When I came to New York recently, that amount had doubled. It’s obvious that Trump wants an economic collapse so that only the top 1% can afford anything – but what then? Are all the people that are unable to afford anything supposed to end up arrested and become another form of slave labor for the American empire? Is that Trump’s plan?
Homelessness in America is another thing I noticed become worse after being away for a year. To my surprise, I found that Americans have become even more indifferent to it than before. The rise in the number of people using drugs on the streets is terrifying, and the fentanyl epidemic is rapidly turning more cities into “zombie cities. ”It was already a serious problem during the pandemic, but now it’s even worse.
More and more people can't afford to pay rent — and more and more are ending up on the streets.
Although the sight of people using drugs frightens me, what I feel even more strongly is anger. Why is no one helping them? How can Americans be so indifferent, watching people die on the streets every day?
Now Trump wants to make homelessness illegal. He will use those who cannot be trapped within the capitalist system as another labor force for America's prison-industrial complex
Homeless people eat Thanksgiving lunch organized by the nonprofit Midnight Mission for nearly 2,000 homeless people in the Skid Row neighborhood of downtown Los Angeles, Nov. 25, 2021. Photo: Apu GOMES/AFP
America is slowly falling apart, like every empire, but its problems didn’t arise overnight.
The cracks in the foundation had existed for years in a country whose core was built on genocide and slavery, but now they can no longer be ignored. So how can the citizens of this country continue to look away and not take action? Because it’s easier to sit at home, distracting themselves with entertainment, social media, or daily responsibilities, than to confront the harsh realities of what is happening around them.It saddens me to realize that many Americans only grasp the seriousness of the situation when their own property is at risk. Only when their belongings, their sense of security, or their daily lives are threatened do they start to understand that change will not come from passive observation or waiting. The urgent need to take to the streets and demand action becomes clear only when the consequences of inaction are personally felt. But history shows us that by then, it’s already too late.
“First they came for the socialists,
and I did not speak out—because I was not a socialist.
Then they came for the trade unionists,
and I did not speak out—because I was not a trade unionist.
Then they came for the Jews,
and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me".
The first and foremost is the experienced political strategist Susie Wiles. Aged 68, she currently holds the position of Chief of Staff at the White House and controls access to the president. It was she who insisted that technology billionaire Elon Musk should not be granted a private office in the White House. Otherwise, he would never leave the Oval Office.
Susie Wiles has been by Trump’s side for many years. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images/AFP/East News
Susie began her career in political PR in 1979. Coincidentally, her first job was at the office of Jack Kemp - a Republican and, crucially, also a star of American football and a teammate of Susie’s father on the New York Giants. This role became a springboard for the young professional into the world of high-level politics - by 1980, she had already joined the presidential campaign of the new Republican star Ronald Reagan. In fact, it was on Wiles’s advice that Trump regularly quoted this great American and even reworked his political slogan to suit his own agenda.
After working on the presidential campaigns of George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, Wiles decided to monetise her expertise and earn wealth from commercial clients. This enterprising lady founded consultancy and lobbying firms, which made her not only a successful political consultant but also a wealthy one. In her best years, she had more than 40 clients, including entire countries such as Qatar and Nigeria, as well as tobacco giants. Elon Musk’s SpaceX and telecommunications monopolist AT&T also sought Wiles’s assistance.
In 2015, while enjoying the sunshine and palm trees of Florida, Donald Trump entertained an intriguing idea - to run for President of the United States. He therefore hired the successful lobbyist and political strategist - the two appreciated each other and began to work together.
Trump calls her «ice baby» and repeated the nickname during his speech at his Mar-a-Lago estate after it became clear he had won the election. The media, however, upgraded this «ice baby» to a more mature «Ice Queen»
Wiles’s colleagues highlight her strengths as a strategist. She brought the much-needed order to Trump’s campaign, managed its narrative (to the extent possible with Trump himself), and demonstrated her outstanding organisational skills. One of Wiles’s colleagues even described her as Trump’s longest-serving adviser, present at all his key meetings. Within the president’s circle, it is said that he frequently includes her in phone calls concerning political matters.
As often happens, the media sometimes receives leaks, such as about a secret Signal chat, where Wiles showed her firm character and hinted at the dismissal of National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.
Regarding her management style, in what is perhaps her only interview since her appointment, she told Axios:
«I do not welcome people who want to operate solo or become stars. My team and I will not tolerate backstabbing, inappropriate speculations or intrigue».
At one point, Wiles successfully dealt with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who challenged Trump in the primaries and even demanded that Wiles be dismissed from the campaign. When he dropped out of the race in January 2024, Wiles simply posted on social media: «Bye-bye».
The 2024 election campaign, which Wiles led alongside political consulting veteran Chris LaCivita, was successful and passed without major scandals
Trump followed advice, remained calm and used social media less frequently. At the same time, he appeared on young podcasters’ shows and danced for TikTok, which helped attract new voters.
Establishing contact with Susie Wiles is essential if one wishes to access the very brain of the President of the United States. Moreover, she controls the movements of all Trump’s friends and acquaintances within the White House, which is precisely why the musician Kid Rock appears there from time to time, but golf buddies are seen less often.
Another key woman who helped make Trump president twice is the charismatic Christian preacher Paula White. She recently became head of the newly established Office of Faith Affairs, which, among other things, is tasked with promoting religious freedom not only nationally but also internationally. During Trump’s first term, Paula White also worked on religious matters, though on a more modest scale.
The charismatic Paula White is always at the side of the President of the United States. Photo: Brynn Anderson/Associated Press/East News
The attractive blonde has known the Trump family since 2001. She is a star of Christian television, with her sermons filling stadiums and concert venues. Clearly, at some point, Trump heard Paula White working with an audience, became inspired by her prosperity theology - according to which material success is a sign of divine grace - and decided that such faith suited him.
If one closely observes the pastor’s speeches, it becomes evident that Trump copied her manner of speaking and gesticulation
The trust in White is so great that during his first term, she served as chair of the Evangelical Advisory Board for Trump’s 2016 campaign, and she became the first female clergy member to deliver a prayer at the inauguration on January 20th 2017.
Pastor White supported Trump in the 2020 presidential race, delivering a prayer at his campaign launch event. Similarly, during the 2024 election campaign, she was actively involved in the future president’s team. This accounts for the high support among the Christian electorate.
Paula White is known for her staunch support of Israel and has even appeared on lists such as «The 50 Best Christian Allies of Israel»
For Ukrainians, a significant fact is that from the very beginning of the invasion, Pastor White organised humanitarian aid for Ukrainian refugees in European countries, regularly reporting this on her website. Therefore, establishing contact with Paula White is a task for every Protestant pastor. It is a guaranteed path straight to Trump’s heart.
In her new role, Paula White will be working closely with the new Attorney General of the United States, Pam Bondi. In parallel with White’s appointment, Bondi was named head of a task force to «eradicate anti-Christian bias», which is intended to put an end to «all forms of anti-Christian attacks and discrimination within the federal government».
Pam Bondi is part of Trump’s inner circle. Photo: Ben Curtis/Associated Press/East News
The 59-year-old former head of the Florida state prosecutor’s office has pledged to maintain the independence of the Department of Justice and «not involve politics in its operations» - amid concerns that Trump intends to take control of the agency and exact revenge on those who led investigations against him and his supporters regarding the refusal to recognise the election results and the storming of the Capitol in 2021.
Interestingly, Bondi was not the president’s first choice for the post of Attorney General. Initially, Trump intended to assign the role to Matt Gaetz. However, before the appointment, the United States Congressional Ethics Committee discovered that Gaetz had spent over 90 thousand dollars making payments to 12 women, a significant number of whom were allegedly linked to services involving underage prostitution and drug use.
Ironically, during Trump’s first presidential term, Pam Bondi chaired the commission on the abuse of narcotic and opioid substances. Recently, the lawyer has been consulting for the America First Policy Institute - an organisation with considerable influence over the newly elected president’s political agenda.
On her first day as Attorney General of the United States, Pam Bondi decided to shut down the special unit tasked with seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs. Instead, the lawyer declared that the new enemy of the United States is the drug cartels
Nevertheless, Russian oligarchs certainly cannot expect the immediate return of their yachts. At the same time, Bondi did not state that the cases handled by the now-disbanded KleptoCapture unit would be closed. It is likely they will continue, although there will no longer be a dedicated team focusing exclusively on this activity. It is also possible that new cases will be launched.
Recently, Pam Bondi demonstrated her loyalty to her chief. She officially declared that it is unlikely criminal proceedings will be initiated over the transmission of sensitive military information via an unsecured Signal chat, in which Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth shared a plan for an airstrike on targets in Yemen.
The Attorney General intends to maintain Trump’s legal peace and protect him from the consequences of his past actions. Like the first two women, she belongs to Trump’s closest circle and is expected to remain with him until the end of his current term.
This project is co-financed by the Polish-American Freedom Foundation within the framework of the «Support Ukraine» programme implemented by the Education for Democracy Foundation
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